Trends of the WorldPrediction Markets Growth
Prediction markets are transitioning from niche speculation to mainstream financial infrastructure, with Bernstein projecting $1 trillion in volume by 2030 and growth rates rivalling AI adoption.
This is one of 6 signals scored across 21 industries in our latest scan.
See them all free →Since we flagged this
First flagged
13 May 2026 · score 7.0/10
Score trajectory (10 runs, live record)
Corroborating sources since flagging
91
The signal strengthens if
- The CFTC formally approves a broader category of event contracts for retail trading on US-regulated exchanges in a published rulemaking.
- Combined annual trading volume across Kalshi and Polymarket exceeds $100 billion in calendar year 2026, as reported by either platform.
The signal weakens if
- The CFTC issues an enforcement action or rule restricting the types of event contracts currently traded on US platforms.
- Kalshi or Polymarket publicly reports a material decline in monthly active traders or trading volume in any two consecutive quarters of 2026.
How the evidence accumulated
Prediction Markets Growth
Since 13 May 2026
How the evidence accumulated — 6 findings and 91 corroborating sources since 13 May 2026.
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Create free accountScores are model-generated assessments of accumulated evidence and may be incomplete or wrong. Provided for informational purposes only; not investment advice.
Sources
Scored from 6 independent sources.
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